Following the confirmation that GTR will not be reintroducing the peak direct to Victoria train on the Tattenham Corner line, a meeting was arranged this week between elected local representatives and GTR to find out more about the reasons behind the reduction, and to see if there was any hope for reintroduction in the future.
Attendees at the meeting included:
- Cllr Rachel Turner - Lower Kingswood, Tadworth & Walton - Reigate
- Cllr Caroline Neame - Chipstead, Kingswood & Woodmansterne - Reigate
- Cllr Mario Creatura - Coulsdon Town - Croydon
- Cllr Ian Parker - Coulsdon Town - Croydon
- Cllr Samir Dwesar - Purley and Woodcote - Croydon
- Cllr Endri Llabuti - Purley Oaks and Riddlesdown - Croydon
- Cllr Alasdair Stewart - Purley Oaks and Riddlesdown - Croydon
- Neil Garratt - London Assembly Member for Croydon and Sutton
- A representative from the office of Crispin Blunt - MP for Reigate
We communicated in no uncertain terms our collective desire for this service to be increased back to pre-pandemic levels as soon as was practicable - before the pandemic there were seven peak hour trains to Victoria in the morning and seven trains back in the evening from Victoria.
What is the current demand level?
Key to this was understanding the current demand levels for the service. There’s no point operating an expensive train if there aren’t the passengers to use it. Anecdotally a number of residents contacted us to say that there is standing room only each morning, demand is therefore perceived to be high.
The Department for Transport published a report on 27 July showing that passengers have returned to the rail network – it achieved 90-93% of pre-Covid levels every single day of the week across the national rail network. These healthy findings mirror previous figures collated between the 10-20 June, also achieving 90-93%, showing that whilst there are still ways to go in stabilising the network, the appetite for rail travel is returning as primary public transport.
These are, of course, national figures. So we asked GTR what their figures told them, and asked how they justify tweaks to their service.
GTR told us that average passenger demand is currently 65% of the pre-pandemic level. The revenue from ticket sales is 60% of before the pandemic. This equates to some £1.13 billion in lost revenue. For example, Season ticket sales are down by more than two thirds based on the figures shared. It used to be 20% of their total revnue, now it's 6%:
Why does this matter? Well, without the extra revenue from ticket sales (or other governmental sources) then there isn’t the funding to increase the service on routes with relatively lower usage compared to other lines. Bringing trains back ‘on stream’ by activating rolling stock requires significant funding that doesn’t currently exist.
What if demand and ticket revenue increase?
Currently commuter patterns suggest a decent usage on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, with significantly lower passenger numbers on Monday and Friday:
There is growing evidence that rail numbers are continuing to increase, as more London offices are expecting their staff working in person for more days a week.
As rail usage increases, we asked for regular reviews into the service. GTR confirmed that they monitor demand statistics on a weekly basis, reacting and adjusting traffic flows on different routes accordingly. This is given particular importance when there is a known disruption to a regular service.
Formal timetable changes happen twice annually, largely informed by a) passenger demand and b) funding availability. If demand and revenue increase to an appropriate level, then there is every chance the frequency of trains on the line could increase. We asked for the restoration of the peak Tattenham Corner to Victoria service to be under regular review.
Are factors like planning and local development level taken into consideration?
There has been intensive construction of housing along the route over the past few years, with an assumption that increased demand will come from those properties for public transport infrastructure – especially if they are built near railway lines.
We were assured that future proofing the rail network is a top priority of GTR, and that they regularly liaise with Local Authority Planning Departments to help them to anticipate need as local populations grow.
How can we guarantee this reduced service is not disrupted?
With only a couple of peak trains an hour, the question was asked how these limited services can be protected in the event of staff sickness or other resourcing issues. We were informed that this is a constant issue across the network, and a key issue that GTR are working on: to guarantee a stability of service for customers as far as is possible.
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We’re naturally disappointed that the service will not be returning to pre-pandemic levels immediately, but we left understanding more about the criterion GTR use to determine what services to keep and bolster.
Hopefully as passenger numbers continue to increase, and revenue flows from ticket sales, the case will inevitably develop to reinstate the lost trains.
We will keep monitoring the situation, and dialogue open with GTR, to ensure that this happens at the earliest viable opportunity - we will always do our best to push for the best possible service for our residents.
Thank you for organising and continuing to fight for better services for our residents.
- Cllr Rebecca Paul - Surrey County Councillor for Tadworth, Walton & Kingswood - 2nd September 2022
Thank you Mario for all your hard work on this important issue.
- Cllr Luke Bennett - Surrey County Councillor for Banstead, Woodmansterne and Chipstead - 2n September 2022
Photo by Daniel Zacatenco on Unsplash
